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Rāviņš: Vilks mani nepārliecināja, ka "Swedbank" nav problēmu (Neatkarīgā Rīta Avīze)
21.12.2011


6tsjdx1sV
Datums: 2013-09-20
It doesn't surprise me that your Wachovia post ranks high; there are a lot of peolpe who bank there, and we are worried :)I also view an exceptionally high CD rate as a bad sign, so when my savings account rate went to 0.3% annual return and they tried to talk me into a 4.5% 12 month CD, I moved my savings to another bank.
pqjxGTNbmK
Datums: 2013-09-21
That ingihst's perfect for what I need. Thanks!
C5ZVKTZ05J
Datums: 2013-09-21
I agree that getting hung up on "non-recourse" is more than a liltte bit strange. You don't even need to go the quasi-bank analogy to see why "non-recourse" is a non-problem. It's simply the way these asset disposition arrangements work in banking crisis resolutions.A simple way to look at the Geithner proposal is that he's setting up a bunch of Asset Management Companies (like multiple RTCs) without the intermediate step of the Government first taking over the assets in an FDIC-type resolution of the banks whose assets are being purchased. This has several advantages. It can work for those banks that we don't want to completely take over (either because they're too-big-to-swallow or they're sickly but viable). It takes advantage of private investors rather than government employees to select and price assets. It saves the time of aggregating assets in a government entity and then packaging them for sale to bottom fishers. It pre-clears the eligibility of bottom fishers. And the government doesn't have to come up with the entire amount of the price it pays for the assets as a sale (which would be carried on the books of the government?) but rather can leverage its own contribution by providing participating loans to the AMCs.If we added the intermediate step of setting up a bad bank or an RTC, the government is on the hook for the entire price it paid. So the whole price tag is "non-recourse" and the government only recovers as it sells off assets (almost certainly below what the government paid for them). In countries where AMCs are set up, they often operate as quasi-agents of the government anyway, putting up no or very liltte capital of their own, and with performance incentives for balancing the interests of maximizing the government's recovery with speed of resolution. Even if the AMC owners have to put up some of their own capital, "non-recourse" for the price the government paid for the assets is the default solution in these sorts of arrangements.Now, it's true that we're still facing the dilemma we had under TARP V1.0 -- can we find a "goldilocks price" that is high enough to attract participation of banks and low enough for it to not be a complete giveaway. But in this case, the anti-giveaway discipline is that the price has to attract private investors, even with cheap government leverage. But Geithner's plan has a lot of advantages over TARP V1.0 -- the government doesn't have to try to price the assets itself through a to-be-invented reverse Dutch auction, it doesn't have to pay swarms of consultants to dig through the assets of participating banks to value them since I assume that would be part of the job of the now-properly-incentivized AMCs, it skips the intermediate step of the government buying and then selling off assets, and it gets more bang for the government's buck. Geithner's plan may not work, but not because of the "non-recourse" feature.
Eltl4p5pZ
Datums: 2013-09-21
Zdraveite.. Iskam da popitam kak moga da katntdaisvam za programa za ka6ta za selski turizam imam ka6ta vav podnojieto na rila planina ili po to4no vav grad Sapareva baniq i iskam da iq napraviq ka6ta za selski turizam,vazmojnolie i kak moje da stane tova .
mS0BlxAe5
Datums: 2013-09-22
Dear Mr. Hempton,You have undoubtedly seen Krugman's "Stressed for Success", pihsulbed in his blog on the 14th of February.Here is an excerpt: it's extremely hard to rescue these banks without either (a) giving a HUGE handout to current stockholders or (b) effectively taking ownership on the part of we, the people. Of these, (a) would be politically unacceptable as well as bad policy but the Obama administration isn't ready to go for (b), because it's not in our culture'. In his "Banking on the Brink" (of the 22nd of February) he kills the guarantee option: "For example, the administration initially floated the idea of offering banks guarantees against losses on troubled assets. This would have been a great deal for bank stockholders, not so much for the rest of us: heads they win, tails taxpayers lose."To my mind, there is a middle way between handout to stockholders and taking full ownership. Its centerpiece is a three-year deal, subject to the following principles:1. Buy now the toxic assets at their book value, but instead of paying cash -2. Create a new asset in the (selected) banks' balance sheets, owed and guaranteed by the government.3. Let the existing and/or appointed managers utilize the three-year period for selling, as trustees, the toxic assets at the best favorable terms (under, possibly, economic recovery conditions). The amount of guarantee will be reduced as the proceeds come in. 4. At the end of the period, the ownership issue will be settled according to an agreed formula, the core of which is the size of the residual amount of guarantee the higher the amount, the lower the prospects of stockholders' salvation, and vice versa.5. Cash transfers from the government to the banks will be made (subject to the terms of the guarantee) only in cases of liquidity problems and will be taken into account in arriving at the final ownership apportionment.This, I believe, is the most expeditious and cheap (no taxpayers' money upfront) solution, giving the current stockholders the fairest possible chance of recouping at least part of their investment.On the other hand, the guarantee will not be given without strings attached re management, so that practically, the healing process could be initiated as if ownership was effectively taken. Basically, the whole crisis is about loss apportionment (between stockholders, uninsured creditors and taxpayers) rather than nationalisation. To my mind, uninsured creditors should be made to "contribute" something after stockholders are wiped out, and before taxpayers' cash is poured in. http://phkidutkbsg.com [url=http://nepsyztd.com]nepsyztd[/url] [link=http://rphcwd.com]rphcwd[/link]
EKxFM0inv6F
Datums: 2013-09-22
Way to go Amanda. I currently work for a crdiet union and we cash US savings bonds all the time. It eventually will be less and less as the only way to purchase US savings bonds is on-line as of the 1st of the year. For those of you who don't know please don't generalize. I would appreciate another expample of something a bank can do and we crdiet unions can't and I will let you know. http://zhmzbvh.com [url=http://exqbgib.com]exqbgib[/url] [link=http://ckeyfn.com]ckeyfn[/link]
afxGH2Qoi
Datums: 2013-09-23
Hi John - perhaps the way to make sense of Krugman's logic is that: (a) he wants to diusingsith between toxic/legacy assets acquired prior to the GFC ("bad bank assets") and new loans/assets made post the GFC ("good bank assets); and (b) Krugman thinks that the US government is too fiscally weak to spend scarce resources buying up bad bank assets which will just suck up resources and do nothing to facilitate new loans/assets. I believe Willem Buiter makes this point well. Buiter thinks that spending money on shoring up the value of bad bank assets achieves nothing in terms of facilitating fresh loans and, in any event, doing this (i.e., buying toxic assets) at the scale required for it to be effective is beyond the US government's fiscal capacity. Perhaps you think just establishing a market for some toxic assets is enough to kick start the banking system?I understand you also think that price discovery is a pre-requisite to nationalisation. I don't understand why nationalisation is so difficult to do. Why couldn't the US government set up a Sovereign Wealth Fund ("SWF") (like Australia's Future Fund) with a mandate to acquire any US bank on condition that: (a) the board and senior management of the bank is replaced as soon as it is acquired; and (b) the SWF is to be wound up in (say) 20 years. (The Swedish experience is that it is a mistake to sell too quickly.) Someone eminent like Paul Volcker could be appointed to chair the SWF. There is no need for the US government to be involved operationally in running a bank (although I'm not necessarily opposed to greater operational control by the government). In fact, the SWF could even be established by Congress, and be answerable directly to Congress rather than the US Treasury. This may be more palatable to a Congress that is distrustful of the US administration.Mr Volcker could be charged to acquire as many banks as he thinks is under-valued, and can be profitably resold within a 20 year time frame. The US government should limit its guarantees and non-recourse loans only to banks that are majority owned by the SWF. Tying fiscal support to banks owned by the SWF will minimise the risk to tax payers as well as conserve the US goverment's fiscal resources.
FqQyUthK1Pc
Datums: 2013-09-24
I agree that getting hung up on "non-recourse" is more than a little bit strange. You don't even need to go the quasi-bank analogy to see why "non-recourse" is a non-problem. It's simply the way these asset disposition arrangements work in banking crisis resolutions.A simple way to look at the Geithner proposal is that he's setting up a bunch of Asset Management Companies (like multiple RTCs) without the intermediate step of the Government first taking over the assets in an FDIC-type resolution of the banks whose assets are being purchased. This has several advantages. It can work for those banks that we don't want to completely take over (either because they're too-big-to-swallow or they're sickly but viable). It takes advantage of private investors rather than government employees to select and price assets. It saves the time of aggregating assets in a government entity and then packaging them for sale to bottom fishers. It pre-clears the eligibility of bottom fishers. And the government doesn't have to come up with the entire amount of the price it pays for the assets as a sale (which would be carried on the books of the government?) but rather can leverage its own contribution by providing participating loans to the AMCs.If we added the intermediate step of setting up a bad bank or an RTC, the government is on the hook for the entire price it paid. So the whole price tag is "non-recourse" and the government only recovers as it sells off assets (almost certainly below what the government paid for them). In countries where AMCs are set up, they often operate as quasi-agents of the government anyway, putting up no or very little capital of their own, and with performance incentives for balancing the interests of maximizing the government's recovery with speed of resolution. Even if the AMC owners have to put up some of their own capital, "non-recourse" for the price the government paid for the assets is the default solution in these sorts of arrangements.Now, it's true that we're still facing the dilemma we had under TARP V1.0 -- can we find a "goldilocks price" that is high enough to attract participation of banks and low enough for it to not be a complete giveaway. But in this case, the anti-giveaway discipline is that the price has to attract private investors, even with cheap government leverage. But Geithner's plan has a lot of advantages over TARP V1.0 -- the government doesn't have to try to price the assets itself through a to-be-invented reverse Dutch auction, it doesn't have to pay swarms of consultants to dig through the assets of participating banks to value them since I assume that would be part of the job of the now-properly-incentivized AMCs, it skips the intermediate step of the government buying and then selling off assets, and it gets more bang for the government's buck. Geithner's plan may not work, but not because of the "non-recourse" feature. http://www.eben-uk.org/ http://www.lowaprcard.net/
fEMFu86B
Datums: 2013-09-25
The last "anon" post is very interesting. I had fraotced into my views the grey-black market economies. In some sense I had probably over-factored them in because I started with the prostitution industry which is always black market.Also - anyone that follows the Estonian situation will know that many companies are going bankrupt because they are being pinged for back-taxes. The black market is becoming less black.But the whole of Eastern Europe looks like it has a serious imbalance. I hae been asked about pretty well every Eastern European banking name. Not many are pretty. Most however are not in anything like as deep as the Swedish are in the Balts. And nobody has the macroeconomic statistics of Latvia. Latvia is on a level of its own. Its macro stats are so implausible it is funny.I hadn't fraotced in remittances to the extent I probably should have. There have been a few posts about remittances. Its sort of obvious when you catch a taxi in London. The taxi-driver will hit you with a pile of racism about Eastern European electricians taking all the good jobs. But nobody seems to complain about the drop-dead-gorgeous Lithuanian girls serving in the sandwich bar at Canary Wharf. Remittances are clearly an issue. The remittance twist - the Spanish construction industry - is one I had heard but had no idea how to quantify. The racial mix of Spain has changed dramatically through this boom (visible in official statistics) but Africans were what stood out. I hadn't picked up the Eastern European labourers to that extent.The clincher to me are things like the Bentley dealer. Sydney has a Bentley dealer. Its a ferociously rich city with a large wealthy class. But if I google Bentley dealer Adelaide - guess what - I get Latvia. It takes a lot of remittances to pay for a Bentley. And most moderately rich cities (such as Adelaide Australia) cannot score a Bentley dealer.Remittances to Argentina were also a big thing. And Mexico before the Peso crisis - and other places. The problem with this movie is we have seen it before. It can last a long time. But it will end in tears. http://pbrngzvmx.com [url=http://abeoxcyrodk.com]abeoxcyrodk[/url] [link=http://bsoosfzkxqj.com]bsoosfzkxqj[/link]
yJLDzS9kma
Datums: 2013-10-17
AnonThis is wrong. Take the terms of the Kaupthing Edge deposit protection listed in the contractual details of Kaupthing Edge's UK product.First it depends on whether the bank is a branch or subsidiary. (Ie is Hansa a separately capitalised bank.)It Hansa's case it is a SUBSIDIARY - which means the Baltic deposit insurance applies.if it were a BRANCH the Swedish one would apply.Kaupthing has two deposit products - one in a UK Sub and the other in a Branch. They have different terms. If someone knows about the really nitty gritty details of the law here for cross border EU branch banking I would love to hear.Email me.J http://www.maqdown.com/buy_cialis.html http://www.maqdown.com/buy_viagra.html
E5bDEMnDnh8P
Datums: 2013-10-18
The last "anon" post is very interesting. I had fcorated into my views the grey-black market economies. In some sense I had probably over-factored them in because I started with the prostitution industry which is always black market.Also - anyone that follows the Estonian situation will know that many companies are going bankrupt because they are being pinged for back-taxes. The black market is becoming less black.But the whole of Eastern Europe looks like it has a serious imbalance. I hae been asked about pretty well every Eastern European banking name. Not many are pretty. Most however are not in anything like as deep as the Swedish are in the Balts. And nobody has the macroeconomic statistics of Latvia. Latvia is on a level of its own. Its macro stats are so implausible it is funny.I hadn't fcorated in remittances to the extent I probably should have. There have been a few posts about remittances. Its sort of obvious when you catch a taxi in London. The taxi-driver will hit you with a pile of racism about Eastern European electricians taking all the good jobs. But nobody seems to complain about the drop-dead-gorgeous Lithuanian girls serving in the sandwich bar at Canary Wharf. Remittances are clearly an issue. The remittance twist - the Spanish construction industry - is one I had heard but had no idea how to quantify. The racial mix of Spain has changed dramatically through this boom (visible in official statistics) but Africans were what stood out. I hadn't picked up the Eastern European labourers to that extent.The clincher to me are things like the Bentley dealer. Sydney has a Bentley dealer. Its a ferociously rich city with a large wealthy class. But if I google Bentley dealer Adelaide - guess what - I get Latvia. It takes a lot of remittances to pay for a Bentley. And most moderately rich cities (such as Adelaide Australia) cannot score a Bentley dealer.Remittances to Argentina were also a big thing. And Mexico before the Peso crisis - and other places. The problem with this movie is we have seen it before. It can last a long time. But it will end in tears.
HXPIhZxC
Datums: 2013-10-18
The last "anon" post is very interesting. I had factored into my views the grey-black market economies. In some sense I had probably over-factored them in because I started with the prostitution industry which is always black market.Also - anyone that follows the Estonian situation will know that many companies are going bankrupt because they are being pinged for back-taxes. The black market is becoming less black.But the whole of Eastern Europe looks like it has a serious imbalance. I hae been asked about pretty well every Eastern European banking name. Not many are pretty. Most however are not in anything like as deep as the Swedish are in the Balts. And nobody has the macroeconomic statistics of Latvia. Latvia is on a level of its own. Its macro stats are so implausible it is funny.I hadn't factored in remittances to the extent I probably should have. There have been a few posts about remittances. Its sort of obvious when you catch a taxi in London. The taxi-driver will hit you with a pile of racism about Eastern European electricians taking all the good jobs. But nobody seems to complain about the drop-dead-gorgeous Lithuanian girls serving in the sandwich bar at Canary Wharf. Remittances are clearly an issue. The remittance twist - the Spanish construction industry - is one I had heard but had no idea how to quantify. The racial mix of Spain has changed dramatically through this boom (visible in official statistics) but Africans were what stood out. I hadn't picked up the Eastern European labourers to that extent.The clincher to me are things like the Bentley dealer. Sydney has a Bentley dealer. Its a ferociously rich city with a large wealthy class. But if I google Bentley dealer Adelaide - guess what - I get Latvia. It takes a lot of remittances to pay for a Bentley. And most moderately rich cities (such as Adelaide Australia) cannot score a Bentley dealer.Remittances to Argentina were also a big thing. And Mexico before the Peso crisis - and other places. The problem with this movie is we have seen it before. It can last a long time. But it will end in tears. http://www.akseseriz.net/online-colleges.html http://www.akseseriz.net/online-courses.html http://www.akseseriz.net/online-classes.html
0xKEbvXtG5
Datums: 2013-10-18
Zdraveite.. Iskam da popitam kak moga da kanditatsvam za programa za ka6ta za selski turizam imam ka6ta vav podnojieto na rila planina ili po to4no vav grad Sapareva baniq i iskam da iq napraviq ka6ta za selski turizam,vazmojnolie i kak moje da stane tova…. http://www.windows-phone-news.com/online-degree... http://www.windows-phone-news.com/online-degree... http://www.windows-phone-news.com/degree-progra...
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Datums: 2013-10-20
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oA7kPNg5cu
Datums: 2013-10-20
My work involves trnevlliag Ukraine, and hookers there are quite pricey even relative to the same Ukrainian hookers in London.But a large part of the cost is the bribes/police protection costs due to their illegality. The hookers themselves get very little. So it is limited supply vs. fairly hefty demand. (despite being anonymous, I still have to add that I did not use the hookers, but was approached by quite a few during my business trips) http://wcxmezpbvr.com [url=http://apucvinz.com]apucvinz[/url] [link=http://ygfqqt.com]ygfqqt[/link]
gEM55c3UdAt2
Datums: 2013-10-20
I was slightly amazed to see this post. To add sovereign debt to household debt and commercial debt certainly gets you a number, but it's a meaningless number, like adding a length to a temperature.Sovereign debt isn't even really debt. It's a claim on a tiny slice of tax revenue in the future. Financial institutions don't buy sovereign to tide the Government over till Thursday, but to buy themselves a guaranteed income stream in the future.Some household debt is net debt, such as credit card debt, but most is mortgage debt, which is gross, not net debt, since a mortgage is backed by a house. You can't add net to gross debt and expect to get a meaningful number.Commercial debt is almost all gross debt, since businesses borrow to acquire assets. Currently, businesses are sitting on large amounts of cash, so they are borrowing for future expansion.Commercial debt is either domestic or foreign. Domestic commercial debt is backed by the UK's industries, and foreign commercial debt is backed by about $6trn in overseas assets owned by UK individuals and companies. The UK has even more overseas assets than Germany, which is a significantly larger economy. http://www.windows-phone-news.com/degree-progra... http://www.akseseriz.net/online-classes.html http://www.windows-phone-news.com/online-colleg...
70iMmV2THMsj
Datums: 2013-10-20
The last "anon" post is very interesting. I had factored into my views the grey-black market economies. In some sense I had probably over-factored them in because I started with the prostitution industry which is always black market.Also - anyone that follows the Estonian situation will know that many companies are going bankrupt because they are being pinged for back-taxes. The black market is becoming less black.But the whole of Eastern Europe looks like it has a serious imbalance. I hae been asked about pretty well every Eastern European banking name. Not many are pretty. Most however are not in anything like as deep as the Swedish are in the Balts. And nobody has the macroeconomic statistics of Latvia. Latvia is on a level of its own. Its macro stats are so implausible it is funny.I hadn't factored in remittances to the extent I probably should have. There have been a few posts about remittances. Its sort of obvious when you catch a taxi in London. The taxi-driver will hit you with a pile of racism about Eastern European electricians taking all the good jobs. But nobody seems to complain about the drop-dead-gorgeous Lithuanian girls serving in the sandwich bar at Canary Wharf. Remittances are clearly an issue. The remittance twist - the Spanish construction industry - is one I had heard but had no idea how to quantify. The racial mix of Spain has changed dramatically through this boom (visible in official statistics) but Africans were what stood out. I hadn't picked up the Eastern European labourers to that extent.The clincher to me are things like the Bentley dealer. Sydney has a Bentley dealer. Its a ferociously rich city with a large wealthy class. But if I google Bentley dealer Adelaide - guess what - I get Latvia. It takes a lot of remittances to pay for a Bentley. And most moderately rich cities (such as Adelaide Australia) cannot score a Bentley dealer.Remittances to Argentina were also a big thing. And Mexico before the Peso crisis - and other places. The problem with this movie is we have seen it before. It can last a long time. But it will end in tears. http://www.windows-phone-news.com/online-colleg... http://www.akseseriz.net/online-colleges.html http://www.akseseriz.net/distance-learning.html
e8qqn1PD4e
Datums: 2013-10-21
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Datums: 2013-10-23
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NVID6UHE
Datums: 2013-10-23
John,Regarding SwedBank valuation & shorting opportunity, it seems to me that the case doesn't pass the acid test [if the premise is that the stock will tank because of the bank's exposure to the Baltics].* [Only] about 1/4 of SwedBank's total loan portfolio is exposure to the Baltics* Loans made in Y2006 and before are likely to be very well secured [something like commercial property in prime areas at EUR600/sq.m.].* New loans from mid-2007 are likely to be made on very conservative basis.* In Y2007 EUR5b new loans were made in the Baltics by HansaBank group. The worst-case-scenario: for those €5b loans the assets provided as a pledge are worth just the same €5b. Generally, borrowers do not walk away even if there is negative equity and, therefore, it is unlikely that SwedBank/HansaBank will record a loss on this piece of assets. Even if property prices decline another 20% to below replacement cost and every Y2007 borrower walks away from its obligations [what is highly unlikely], the loss will not exceed €1b. But then SwedBank itself generates about €1.25b in annual profits. * The CEO of HansaBank Latvia has been replaced in Y2007. Former CEO was excellent in marketing and building market share [with great success]. The current CEO before was vice-president in charge for risk management. It tells me that SwedBank itself has recognised and addressed the problem before anybody else noticed. * Last, but not the least, there is a significant risk to get caught in trend reversal as the prevailing pessimism regarding financial stocks may suddenly change to optimistic expectation that the worst of sub-prime morass is behind. All the above mentioned tells to me that there should be better shorting opportunities out there, EGO, RRI, PSMT [all U.S. stocks] to mention a few.A. http://www.bestcreditcardoffers4you.com http://www.tracygracedesigns.com/buy-cialis-onl... http://www.tracygracedesigns.com/buy-viagra-onl...
03yJ8Vr5l0Ts
Datums: 2013-10-23
The last "anon" post is very interesting. I had factored into my views the grey-black market economies. In some sense I had probably over-factored them in because I started with the prostitution industry which is always black market.Also - anyone that follows the Estonian situation will know that many companies are going bankrupt because they are being pinged for back-taxes. The black market is becoming less black.But the whole of Eastern Europe looks like it has a serious imbalance. I hae been asked about pretty well every Eastern European banking name. Not many are pretty. Most however are not in anything like as deep as the Swedish are in the Balts. And nobody has the macroeconomic statistics of Latvia. Latvia is on a level of its own. Its macro stats are so implausible it is funny.I hadn't factored in remittances to the extent I probably should have. There have been a few posts about remittances. Its sort of obvious when you catch a taxi in London. The taxi-driver will hit you with a pile of racism about Eastern European electricians taking all the good jobs. But nobody seems to complain about the drop-dead-gorgeous Lithuanian girls serving in the sandwich bar at Canary Wharf. Remittances are clearly an issue. The remittance twist - the Spanish construction industry - is one I had heard but had no idea how to quantify. The racial mix of Spain has changed dramatically through this boom (visible in official statistics) but Africans were what stood out. I hadn't picked up the Eastern European labourers to that extent.The clincher to me are things like the Bentley dealer. Sydney has a Bentley dealer. Its a ferociously rich city with a large wealthy class. But if I google Bentley dealer Adelaide - guess what - I get Latvia. It takes a lot of remittances to pay for a Bentley. And most moderately rich cities (such as Adelaide Australia) cannot score a Bentley dealer.Remittances to Argentina were also a big thing. And Mexico before the Peso crisis - and other places. The problem with this movie is we have seen it before. It can last a long time. But it will end in tears. http://www.maqdown.com/viagra.html http://www.quoteforinsur.com http://www.maqdown.com/cialis_online.html
ZU5V9TDvA8
Datums: 2013-10-24
The last "anon" post is very interesting. I had factored into my views the grey-black market economies. In some sense I had probably over-factored them in because I started with the prostitution industry which is always black market.Also - anyone that follows the Estonian situation will know that many companies are going bankrupt because they are being pinged for back-taxes. The black market is becoming less black.But the whole of Eastern Europe looks like it has a serious imbalance. I hae been asked about pretty well every Eastern European banking name. Not many are pretty. Most however are not in anything like as deep as the Swedish are in the Balts. And nobody has the macroeconomic statistics of Latvia. Latvia is on a level of its own. Its macro stats are so implausible it is funny.I hadn't factored in remittances to the extent I probably should have. There have been a few posts about remittances. Its sort of obvious when you catch a taxi in London. The taxi-driver will hit you with a pile of racism about Eastern European electricians taking all the good jobs. But nobody seems to complain about the drop-dead-gorgeous Lithuanian girls serving in the sandwich bar at Canary Wharf. Remittances are clearly an issue. The remittance twist - the Spanish construction industry - is one I had heard but had no idea how to quantify. The racial mix of Spain has changed dramatically through this boom (visible in official statistics) but Africans were what stood out. I hadn't picked up the Eastern European labourers to that extent.The clincher to me are things like the Bentley dealer. Sydney has a Bentley dealer. Its a ferociously rich city with a large wealthy class. But if I google Bentley dealer Adelaide - guess what - I get Latvia. It takes a lot of remittances to pay for a Bentley. And most moderately rich cities (such as Adelaide Australia) cannot score a Bentley dealer.Remittances to Argentina were also a big thing. And Mexico before the Peso crisis - and other places. The problem with this movie is we have seen it before. It can last a long time. But it will end in tears. http://www.akseseriz.net/online-colleges.html http://www.windows-phone-news.com/college-onlin... http://www.akseseriz.net/online-classes.html
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Datums: 2013-10-25
John,Regarding SwedBank valuation & shorting opportunity, it seems to me that the case doesn't pass the acid test [if the premise is that the stock will tank because of the bank\'s exposure to the Baltics].* [Only] about 1/4 of SwedBank\'s total loan portfolio is exposure to the Baltics* Loans made in Y2006 and before are likely to be very well secured [something like commercial property in prime areas at EUR600/sq.m.].* New loans from mid-2007 are likely to be made on very conservative basis.* In Y2007 EUR5b new loans were made in the Baltics by HansaBank group. The worst-case-scenario: for those €5b loans the assets provided as a pledge are worth just the same €5b. Generally, borrowers do not walk away even if there is negative equity and, therefore, it is unlikely that SwedBank/HansaBank will record a loss on this piece of assets. Even if property prices decline another 20% to below replacement cost and every Y2007 borrower walks away from its obligations [what is highly unlikely], the loss will not exceed €1b. But then SwedBank itself generates about €1.25b in annual profits. * The CEO of HansaBank Latvia has been replaced in Y2007. Former CEO was excellent in marketing and building market share [with great success]. The current CEO before was vice-president in charge for risk management. It tells me that SwedBank itself has recognised and addressed the problem before anybody else noticed. * Last, but not the least, there is a significant risk to get caught in trend reversal as the prevailing pessimism regarding financial stocks may suddenly change to optimistic expectation that the worst of sub-prime morass is behind. All the above mentioned tells to me that there should be better shorting opportunities out there, EGO, RRI, PSMT [all U.S. stocks] to mention a few.A. http://www.maqdown.com/cialis_online.html http://www.memorialbaptistbeckley.com/prednison... http://www.memorialbaptistbeckley.com/buy-accutane
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Datums: 2013-10-26
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Datums: 2013-10-28
* Macro/consumer-demand situation is very grim, but don't read too much into it* HansaBank is likely to be funded within the SwedBank group since loans-to-deposits rations seem to be reversed in Swedish branches as compared to Baltic branches. It makes perfect business sence to "recycle" excess deposits from Swedish branches in the fast-growing Baltic states.* [I agree that] by far most of bank assets is the Baltics are EUR assets, not local currency denominated assets. Devaluation is risk to banks is a rather remote risk. Solvency risk is much higher.* [I agree that] competitiveness of the economies has decreased in a major way due to sharp across-the-board increase of production costs. This adds to solvency risk.* HansaBank in Latvia has about EUR 1.7b in loans, considerable part of it in mortgages. As real estate prices have decreased by about 30%, there is a considerable number of negative equity cases. How/when this will show up, if at all, on bank balance sheets and P/L?* I expect NO devaluation. Some players sit in short local currency positions, but I consider it a costly and very low probability bet. [It's a much longer story why.]* I expect things to straighten out in the next 12-24 months with the current crisis as a milestone between extra hot, consumer-demand-driven growth to normal, sustainable economic environment. Some of the factors contributing to such limited optimism is that (a) individuals are competitive even if the economy is not, (b) exports growing faster than imports, (c) considerable part of income is derived abroad. http://www.maqdown.com/viagra.html http://www.maqdown.com/buy_viagra.html
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Datums: 2013-11-02
You do detail the poblrem with the index - which is that the price has something to do with social attitudes...But the Poland being cheap is also a cliche - it is why the low-wage person who cleans your hotel in London is likely to be Polish.
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Datums: 2013-11-05
John,Regarding SwedBank valuation & shontirg opportunity, it seems to me that the case doesn't pass the acid test [if the premise is that the stock will tank because of the bank's exposure to the Baltics].* [Only] about 1/4 of SwedBank's total loan portfolio is exposure to the Baltics* Loans made in Y2006 and before are likely to be very well secured [something like commercial property in prime areas at EUR600/sq.m.].* New loans from mid-2007 are likely to be made on very conservative basis.* In Y2007 EUR5b new loans were made in the Baltics by HansaBank group. The worst-case-scenario: for those 5b loans the assets provided as a pledge are worth just the same 5b. Generally, borrowers do not walk away even if there is negative equity and, therefore, it is unlikely that SwedBank/HansaBank will record a loss on this piece of assets. Even if property prices decline another 20% to below replacement cost and every Y2007 borrower walks away from its obligations [what is highly unlikely], the loss will not exceed 1b. But then SwedBank itself generates about 1.25b in annual profits. * The CEO of HansaBank Latvia has been replaced in Y2007. Former CEO was excellent in marketing and building market share [with great success]. The current CEO before was vice-president in charge for risk management. It tells me that SwedBank itself has recognised and addressed the problem before anybody else noticed. * Last, but not the least, there is a significant risk to get caught in trend reversal as the prevailing pessimism regarding financial stocks may suddenly change to optimistic expectation that the worst of sub-prime morass is behind. All the above mentioned tells to me that there should be better shontirg opportunities out there, EGO, RRI, PSMT [all U.S. stocks] to mention a few.A.
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I don't normally like aioxernc racists or pink cars but I have to say I support this move. It illustrates just how dumb she is, and I want the world to see it in 3-D with pink spinners to drive home the point.(9 to 10 odds she doesnt really drive this nor did she order it. they simply paid her to show up and pretend it's hers.)
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I was looking fwrraod to your Upcoming Post and checked close to when you said you would post. Good idea!Are you opening these accounts as a personal account, or as a corporate account? If personal, the person is a resident of the EEC (I really don't want to know who, I am from the Americas) or elsewhere (does that effect the opening process?)?Your posts are one of the only sites which are informative instead of give-me-your-money-first sites all over the net. Your spot on regarding intermediaries, regarding the fact they should be willing to share their banks with you. I m currently checking into doing research in the EU, and your site has helped.
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* Macro/consumer-demand situation is very grim, but don't read too much into it* HansaBank is leilky to be funded within the SwedBank group since loans-to-deposits rations seem to be reversed in Swedish branches as compared to Baltic branches. It makes perfect business sence to "recycle" excess deposits from Swedish branches in the fast-growing Baltic states.* [I agree that] by far most of bank assets is the Baltics are EUR assets, not local currency denominated assets. Devaluation is risk to banks is a rather remote risk. Solvency risk is much higher.* [I agree that] competitiveness of the economies has decreased in a major way due to sharp across-the-board increase of production costs. This adds to solvency risk.* HansaBank in Latvia has about EUR 1.7b in loans, considerable part of it in mortgages. As real estate prices have decreased by about 30%, there is a considerable number of negative equity cases. How/when this will show up, if at all, on bank balance sheets and P/L?* I expect NO devaluation. Some players sit in short local currency positions, but I consider it a costly and very low probability bet. [It's a much longer story why.]* I expect things to straighten out in the next 12-24 months with the current crisis as a milestone between extra hot, consumer-demand-driven growth to normal, sustainable economic environment. Some of the factors contributing to such limited optimism is that (a) individuals are competitive even if the economy is not, (b) exports growing faster than imports, (c) considerable part of income is derived abroad. http://ahjnltmkwet.com [url=http://ecjpbshzjgk.com]ecjpbshzjgk[/url] [link=http://dotipykpfgf.com]dotipykpfgf[/link]
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Datums: 2014-01-07
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